Here's an excellent post from Kevin Drum on the distributive burden of state and local taxation, comparing California and Texas. His point is that for the lower and middle classes (the majority), state and local tax rates are actually lower in California than in Texas. Only the top 1-5% really get slammed in California compared with Texas. So there's little reason to think that high taxes per se should be driving a large-scale exodus from CA to TX.
The source he links to, ITEP, has a particularly interesting map of states by tax regressivity. You might be able to make out some correlation between red states and regressive states, but if so it's not a strong one: Washington state is the worst, and South Carolina looks quite equitable. Food for thought.
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