Escaping the Malthusian Trap

An awesome visualization from Kieran Healy. Makes you wonder what happened in the 18th Century? Could it be... hmm... capitalism? I also want to see the 20th Century using a logarithmic scale. Thankfully he provides a link to the code.

The looming Chinese "demographic crisis"

The recent NY Times reporting on Chinese population and population policy is appallingly bad. Birth rates are falling rapidly around the globe, so much so that population will begin to decline in many countries, and many countries will increasingly face the challenges associated with an aging population. China is hardly unique in this regard; even if the draconian one-child policy accelerated the process, China's fertility rate is not far from what one would expect given its per-capita income. Visit your friend Gapminder if you need the evidence. The chart below plots total fertility rate (children ever born per woman) against per-capita income (log scale), by country, with circle size proportional to population. China is the big red circle toward the right. If you eyeball a curve through the dots, you might conclude that China is a bit below what you'd predict, but on a trajectory similar to such countries as Brazil, Iran, Thailand, Italy, and Japan. 

Does catastrophe loom? Japan fell below replacement fertility in the mid-1970s. Sure, there are sad stories of lonely old folks, but it's hardly a crisis. Ongoing productivity improvements coupled with appropriate social policies can easily accommodate the changing age structure. And let's not forget that world population has already pushed up against the earth's carrying capacity. I am not one to argue that overpopulation is the main source of the climate crisis, but reducing greenhouse gas emissions can only be easier with fewer people around to burn fossil fuel.

May the women of China continue to question pro-fertility norms and prove to be an example for people around the world!

Census Day!

Coming up.

Gelman on mortality trends

A recent article by Case and Deaton on mortality trends of middle-aged white Americans vs. folks in other countries has justifiably received a lot of attention. The contrast is, to put it bluntly, dismal, and poses a fascinating puzzle. What exactly is going wrong here?

Andrew Gelman throws a little cold water on the findings, noting that the apparent rise in mortality in the data is an artifact of the changing age distribution within the 45-54 year old age group, at least for white men. The recent upward trend is largely restricted to women, and not quite so dramatic. But as he notes, the takeaway of the Case and Deaton paper still stands—namely, the international contrast: presumably the age adjustment would have similar implications for the comparison countries and make their mortality reductions look even better. Why have white Americans failed to experience the recent gains in longevity evident elsewhere around the world?

Amartya Sen on the end of the one-child policy...

"What is needed is more reasoning..." Sen is a treasure, and the sentiment is solid, but I've always wondered whether he didn't have just a little too much faith in the Enlightenment project... Republican primary debates...