The looming Chinese "demographic crisis"

The recent NY Times reporting on Chinese population and population policy is appallingly bad. Birth rates are falling rapidly around the globe, so much so that population will begin to decline in many countries, and many countries will increasingly face the challenges associated with an aging population. China is hardly unique in this regard; even if the draconian one-child policy accelerated the process, China's fertility rate is not far from what one would expect given its per-capita income. Visit your friend Gapminder if you need the evidence. The chart below plots total fertility rate (children ever born per woman) against per-capita income (log scale), by country, with circle size proportional to population. China is the big red circle toward the right. If you eyeball a curve through the dots, you might conclude that China is a bit below what you'd predict, but on a trajectory similar to such countries as Brazil, Iran, Thailand, Italy, and Japan. 

Does catastrophe loom? Japan fell below replacement fertility in the mid-1970s. Sure, there are sad stories of lonely old folks, but it's hardly a crisis. Ongoing productivity improvements coupled with appropriate social policies can easily accommodate the changing age structure. And let's not forget that world population has already pushed up against the earth's carrying capacity. I am not one to argue that overpopulation is the main source of the climate crisis, but reducing greenhouse gas emissions can only be easier with fewer people around to burn fossil fuel.

May the women of China continue to question pro-fertility norms and prove to be an example for people around the world!