What could possibly go wrong?

My parents live in a central Florida retirement development quite close to The Villages, which bills itself as Florida's friendliest hometown and is now home to more than 120,000 folks, generally 55 and over. Thanks to Florida's Trumpian governor Ron DeSantis, as well as the freedom- and fun-loving population of the Villages, the lockdown seems to be over...

Town squares in The Villages heat up as Coronavirus caution cools off

My parents, being sensible, smart, and respectful of science, are not eager to join the fun just yet, and are venturing out as seldom as possible, wearing masks, etc. I hate to be melodramatic, but if the infection rate in this highly vulnerable population flares, Messrs. Trump and DeSantis will have the blood on their hands.

Mayor Tubbs is with me...

He has this to say about Kamala Harris's idea of $2,000 per month to every American for the duration of the coronavirus crisis:

There will be a prolonged economic crisis after COVID-19, particularly for the groups who are oftentimes most impacted by downturns in the economy: people of color, women of color, etcetera. So I would argue that $2,000 a month during a pandemic is a great step, but it's time to really think about a social safety net and understand that we live in a time of pandemics. If it's not an illness, there's an earthquake. If it's not an earthquake, there's a fire. These happen yearly, so we need to make sure that folks have the tools they need to build a great foundation. I feel a guaranteed income is an important part of that solution.

The education-unemployment gap

Less-educated workers have been hammered by the COVID depression. The four-year degree seems to make the difference between workers who can keep their jobs from home and those who cannot.

Coronavirus and the racial unemployment gap

Dean Baker calls attention to the unusual fact that the unemployment rate actually rose more for white workers than for black workers in April. For decades, the unemployment rate for African Americans has tended to be about twice that for whites, with the differential typically widening during recessions so as to preserve or even expand the proportional gap.

The experience during the current debacle has been a little different. Here are some selected numbers, comparing January with April, stratified by race and gender (BLS data, civilian non-institutional population, seasonally adjusted).

Over this period, the percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate was pretty similar for blacks and whites, with the gap increasing by an extra point for black men and by about a point less for black women. For both men and women, the ratio of black to white unemployment rates fell quite a bit, defying the typical 2:1 pattern. The pattern is similar for the ratio of non-employed to population, which takes account of labor-force "dropouts."

Among the three racial groups here, the most dramatic increase in the unemployment rate was for Latino workers. Given the importance of food-service and related jobs for Hispanic workers, this may not be too surprising. Up next: breakdown by educational attainment.

We gots da meat!

Thank God for Mr. Trump, and pass the A.1.

Songs for hunkering down

Back in the day, folks would gather around the family radio and listen to live performances at a safe social distance. Popular music, classical music, comedy, drama... and of course Frank Sinatra. As we try to re-learn how to do it, we can enjoy the master, as he came into his prime. Frank Sinatra, Selections from A Voice On Air (1935-1955).

Shame

Disfranchisement Midwestern style, with a boost from our five hacks on the U.S.S.C.

Bending that logarithmic curve

Dr. Birx: “We have to change that slope; we have to change the logarithmic curve that we’re on,” she said of the steep increases in cases in many parts of the country. “We see country after country having done that, what it means in the United States is not everyone is doing it.”

Maybe if nothing else this experience will lead to a little more seriousness about Algebra II. Whether the curve is bending elsewhere as she claims... we shall see.

Social insurance for the pandemic

This simple idea from Greg Mankiw makes a lot of sense to me. What should X and N be? 2000 dollars for 4 months could be a good place to start. Total cost to the government this year = 2000*4*350 million = 2.8 trillion. Next year people must pay their grant back in surtax at the ratio of their 2020 to 2019 income. If unemployment gets really bad and incomes drop by 25%, the government will have spent (borrowed) a net of 700 billion. A quite reasonable sum as part of the necessary recovery package.