The Donroe Doctrine

David Cole on the Maduro operation in historical perspective:

But in other respects Trump’s “brilliant operation” is unprecedented in modern US history. These earlier strikes were in response to actual or threatened attacks on the US. By contrast, Trump’s unilateral actions against Venezuela were entirely unprovoked. The implication of the administration’s reasoning is that countries can use military force anytime they are unhappy with how another country regulates or fails to regulate conduct within its borders that could have injurious effects elsewhere. But this is ludicrous. By the administration’s logic, Canada could start shooting Americans suspected of carrying drugs over the US–Canada border, or bomb buildings in the US that it claimed were being used to manufacture the drugs. Mexico could do the same with respect to American manufacturers of guns that are routinely used in gang violence, which kills many thousands of Mexicans each year.

Perhaps we should be relieved if it really is just about taking their oil. Or perhaps not...

Larry Kotlikoff on Trump firing the head of BLS

I suppose you have to be an econ nerd to fully appreciate the work of our federal statistical agencies– notably the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau. Suffice to say, they are not perfect, but they do incredibly valuable work generating data that we can have confidence in. At least until now. I don't agree with Kotlikoff on everything, but he is spot-on here. Krugman and others have noted that by corrupting and politicizing government data, Trump is doing what banana republics have always done. I suppose becoming a banana republic will have its advantages, since we will presumably have to grow our own when the Trump tariffs cut off banana imports.

OBBB passes the Senate

"A true Washington gaffe is always a confession, and Vance’s is this: Trumpist populism offers its adherents nothing but the demonization and expulsion of immigrants. In return, generations of Americans will be left sicker and deeper in debt." Lydia Polgreen, NYTimes.

What's not to like?

Sly Stone and Brian Wilson, RIP

Two of the all-time greats. Sad week, when both of these guys die along with U.S. democracy.

Boys will be boys

And boy, is this depressing. Source: Ezra Klein, NYT.

Today’s economy is historically strong

Josh Bivens. Not that the swing voters will necessarily believe it.

"... in the end, he is a selfish child."

So says Chris Christie, of our once and sadly maybe future president. I work at a university and live in the Bay Area bubble, so I simply don't have conversations with many Trump supporters, but I do often wonder what I would say about why I think he is so appalling. Proto-fascist, racist, rapist, grifter... not to mention very bad on most policy issues I care about. But Chris says all you need to know to want to avoid another four years of Trump rule. 

In refusing to endorse Harris, Christie is either a coward or an opportunist who has deluded himself into thinking he has a future in the GOP. Nevertheless, I have always had a soft spot for him. In some parallel universe he might not make the worst president. In our universe he would have some very tough competition for that title.

On another planet

"Immigration reform now!" would be a sign I could stomach. This, not so much. Source: NYT.

Even specialer!

Oklahoma’s State Superintendent Requires Public Schools to Teach the Bible (NYT)

Though, truth be told, I wish someone had forced me to read it when I was in school...

Litmus test

Hey Republican / MAGA! Do you repudiate the Colorado GOP's "God Hates Flags"? How about what David French and family have endured? If not, no more civility... we are finished. Feel free to ask me where I draw the line on my side. Maybe I'm just as bigoted and mean-spirited as you are. I think not.

Dabney Coleman, RIP

I had kinda forgotten all about him until seeing the obit, but I do remember Buffalo Bill very fondly.

In a 2010 interview with New York magazine, Mr. Coleman reflected with pleasure on the gallery of rapscallions he had played over the years.

“It’s fun playing those roles,” he said. “You get to do outlandish things; things that you want to do, probably, in real life, but you just don’t because you’re a civilized human being.”

Now we have a candidate for president who lacks that basic filter. I wish it were a sit-com rather than real life. 

Once I finally quit the New York Times, where will I turn?

Obviously to Dean Baker, who seems even more frustrated than I am at the nihilism of our "newspaper of record," which repeatedly feeds the (false) narratives that will help return fascist Trump to the White House. 

In keeping with its apparent commitment to ignore the data and insist homeownership is no longer possible, the New York Times ran yet another piece on how homeownership is becoming impossible for young people. The piece begins with the sad story of a young woman worried whether she and her spouse will ever be able to own a home....

It is unfortunate to hear about this nihilism. It would have been helpful to note that it does not correspond to the data. While homeownership rates have fallen back somewhat in the last few quarters, as a result of the sharp jump in mortgage rates, they are still above the pre-pandemic levels.

This is true across the board, including for young people. 

What to blame for the sorry state of U.S. politics

The latest Times / Siena poll puts Trump in the lead in several swing states, and a quick perusal of the tables reveals where the blame lies: namely, the 19th Amendment. Sure, it gave women the vote, but it failed to take the next logical step, which was to take away the vote for men. Once again, the nation suffers the consequences.

America Betrays Its Children Again

Yup. Krugman. 

Krugman on motivated reasoning in economics

He's right about this, and the pattern extends well beyond positions on inflation. Consider the employment effects of the minimum wage, or the wage effects of immigration. Economists who study these issues tend to be on one team or the other, and their careful and "objective" empirical analysis will more often than not support their team's views. A challenge for anyone who wants to believe in technocracy.

This says something uncomfortable about the economics profession: We’re supposed to be doing dispassionate analysis, but the fact that most economists are consistently either inflation optimists or inflation pessimists whatever the circumstances suggests that somebody is suffering from motivated reasoning. (But not me. I, of course, am totally objective. OK, I do sometimes catch myself engaging in motivated reasoning. But I try to fight it.)

Joe Biden Has Given Us the Greatest Economy Ever

Dean Baker says so. He's probably correct. Maybe this helps explain why the Republican Party is hellbent on tanking the global economy by refusing to raise the debt limit. 

Starting with unemployment, the current unemployment rate of 3.4 percent is the lowest in more than half a century. More than any time in this period, people who want a job are able to get one. The unemployment rate for Blacks is at 4.7 percent, the lowest number on record. 

Frogs won't actually stay in the pot as the water temperature rises... but humans?

So, the GOP and maybe some conservative Democrats plan to hold the economy hostage in order to repeal key climate provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act (and take food away from poor people).

Ocean surface temperature... nothing to see here...

Take. Away. All. The. Guns.

Oops, I said it.  

Childhood’s Greatest Danger:

 

The Data on Kids and Gun Violence

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More great ways to exercise your 2nd Amendment rights

Political intimidation! Sheesh.

Candidates Make Final Pitches on Economy, Abortion, and Democracy

Apparently there are differences of opinion on all three... NYT.